BRAVE NEW WORLD

It’s obvious after the South Carolina primary that Chicago politician Barack Obama has the lock on the African-American vote. They now have a national leader that they are comfortable with.That’s as it should be. Every group needs to coalesce around a core leadership to represent its interests at the table. That way you know whom to negotiate with.

This brings to mind the ascendancy of the Parti Quebecois in Canada of the 1970’s, when French Quebeckers split off from the Liberal Party and formed into a national bloc. Canada benefited from the leadership of Prime Minister Pierre Eliot Trudeau, who, being half-French and half-English himself, managed to balance national interests and keep Quebec as part of the Canadian confederation.

The more-or-less even dispersal of African Americans throughout the U.S. precludes any move for black separatism, but this writer believes that Obama will serve as the instrument that irredeemably fractures the fragile Democratic coalition the same as one blow of a chisel can shatter a carefully sculpted marble statue. It’s obvious that black political aspirations cannot be contained within the current structure of the Democratic Party.

The big winner of the South Carolina primary is New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, whose presidential ambitions have been resuscitated by hopes that enough disenchanted Democrats will flee into his waiting arms. This calculation may be realized if Obama’s strength continues to snowball going into Super Tuesday.

While a Bloomberg third party candidacy may siphon off considerable support from the Democrats, it will probably not have any effect upon Republican voters, who have got to be figuratively dancing in the streets. They can probably be counted upon to maintain unity around a McCain candidacy.

The latest news now is that in a suicidal paroxysm in total conformity with past Democratic behavior, Sen. Edward Kennedy has thrown his support behind Obama. A few weeks ago the Democrats seemed to have a sure winner against a fragmented Republican field.But like a Super Bowl game, the dynamics have shifted in midfield to the other team. The Republicans have a new dynamism with McCain, while the Democrats are fighting among themselves.

The damage has been done. Regardless of the results of Super Tuesday, the Democrats will never be able to put themselves back together again. If Clinton wins, the black vote will never support her in the general election. If Obama manages to attain the nomination, enough Democrats will flee, either to the Republicans or to Bloomberg, to ensure a Republican victory.

The country seems to be entering a new phase of smaller parties that will form coalitions around issues of mutual interest and will only work together as long as those interests are served, similar to Europe or – Africa.

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Posted on 1/27/2008 ( Permanent Link )
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